Market Outlook 2025 – Q4 Update
by
Felix Ronner
Global markets remain shaped in the fourth quarter by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and structural headwinds. At the same time, selected segments offer opportunities for long-term-oriented investors.
Structural Environment – Fragmentation and Polarisation
Globalisation is increasingly being replaced by a geo-economic order. Trade and capital flows are becoming polarised along geopolitical blocs, while high debt levels, demographic change, and weak productivity growth weigh on global trend growth. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East add to uncertainty, as do potential de-dollarisation and rising tensions between the West and the Global South.
Economic Outlook – Volatility and Downside Risks
The macroeconomic environment remains volatile. In the United States, a temporary phase of weakness is emerging under President Trump, while Europe continues to experience subdued growth. China’s industrial overcapacity is burdening the manufacturing sectors of developed economies. Monetary policy is diverging: while the ECB is ending its rate-cutting cycle, the Fed is expected to lower rates more aggressively, thereby risking an overly loose stance in the medium term.
Geopolitical Risks and Political Factors
Global conflicts – from Ukraine to Taiwan – and U.S. protectionist measures are increasing risks and accelerating the fragmentation of global trade. The rise of EU-sceptical parties and persistently expansionary fiscal policies are also weighing on the environment.
Market Environment – Opportunities Despite Uncertainty
Risk assets remain attractive in the long term, even though volatility stays elevated. Equities are likely to benefit from rising corporate earnings, while safe government bonds may trade sideways. Spread products and precious metals offer additional opportunities. The trend toward sustainable investing and green finance continues to strengthen across all asset classes.
You can download the detailed market outlook with an update for Q4 2025 here.